← Penang’s First Ever Grand Archive Regional
Wind SeiryuuTier 1
at Penang’s First Ever Grand Archive Regional
decks
13
(13.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
74
39-26-9
overall winrate
58.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.1%
avg ELO +1.4 per match
expected value
52.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1356
· median 1364
· range 1140–1472
(13 pilots with an ELO rating)
993
Q1 1189
Q3 1404
1571
38% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
8% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.1% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 49.1% | -0.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.1% | 5 | 0-4-1 | 10.0% | 27.8% | 33.1% | -9.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.1% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 62.2% | +7.8 |
| Water Fractal | 5.1% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 46.1% | -2.5 |
| Water Genbu | 5.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.2% | -2.8 |
| Wind Allies | 5.1% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 57.4% | +4.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.0% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 41.0% | -5.2 |
| Slimes | 4.0% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 67.1% | +10.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.6% | +1.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.0% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 63.7% | +8.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 7 | 4-2-1 | 64.3% | 59.1% | 60.1% | +5.1 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.5% | +4.3 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.4 |
| Fire Suited | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.9% | +4.7 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.2 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | -16.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 62.9% | +9.6 |
| Fire Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.6 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.8 |
| Wind Jin | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.8 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -2.2 |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 1.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 40.3% | -9.3 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.5% | +4.3 |
Decklists · 13 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 7 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 7 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Veiling Breeze, Forest Cake, Dream Fairy. Losers more often ran: Innervate Agility, Brisk Windtrotter, Beseech the Winds.
Veiling Breeze
Winning decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Forest Cake
Winning decks ran 3.4
copies on average,
losing decks 2.4.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Dream Fairy
Winning decks ran 2.9
copies on average,
losing decks 2.4.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Blinding Lapse
Winning decks ran 1.1
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Safeguard Amulet
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Sunblessed Gazelle
Winning decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
losing decks 1.1.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Innervate Agility
Losing decks ran 2.6
copies on average,
winning decks 2.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Brisk Windtrotter
Losing decks ran 2.4
copies on average,
winning decks 2.1.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Beseech the Winds
Losing decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Lost Providence
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 2.
Scatter Essence
Losing decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
winning decks 1.3.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 2.
Ducal Seal
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Show all 51 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 31 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Innervate Agility | -0.57 | 0 | 4 | 3 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +0.43 | 4 | 1 | 1 | |
| Forest Cake | +0.43 | 4 | 1 | 2 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | -0.43 | 1 | 4 | 2 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.43 | 4 | 1 | 2 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Royal Oathguard | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Glow Forth | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blinding Lapse | +0.29 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Topsy Decree | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scout the Land | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |
| Lost Providence | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Scatter Essence | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Ducal Seal | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Sunblessed Gazelle | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Harness Lightning | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
| Byakko's Command | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trained Hawk | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reveal the Hidden | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Calming Breeze | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Candlelight Hourglass | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sylph's Envelopment | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Noble Dissolution | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Displace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |
| Seiryuu's Command | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |
| Beseeched Fatestone | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |
| Longtail Grovesward | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 3 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 3 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Reclaim | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |